Canadian Marketing Blog

Is Twitter a Fad?

Approximately 60 percent of current Twitter users fail to return the next month, according to data from Nielsen Online. In other words, Twitter's audience retention rate is about 40 percent. Moreover, it was below 30 percent in the 12-month period before Oprah joined Twitter bandwagon. The above conclusions were arrived at by Nielsen Online by analyzing Twitter.com and other websites and applications that feed into Twitter community blog post. For comparison, Facebook and Myspace users’ retention rates were twice as high in the early stage and are about 70 percent currently.

By definition, fads enter the market quickly, are adopted with great zeal, peak early and decline fast. Fads do not survive long because either they do not satisfy an existing market need or fail to develop a desire (want). There are several products, line extensions and ideas that could not develop an ongoing market demand and proved to be fads. The Atkins diet, Wacky wall walkers, acid-washed denim jeans and Rubik’s cube were a few of such fads. On the other hand innovative products like iPods successfully met and increased an existing market need and Blackberry smart phones created demand for convenience and mobility to be hugely successful.

Is there an identifiable need for Twitting that could translate into a critical mass? Can twitter help expand the initial use by Innovators to Early Adopters? Answers to these questions will determine whether Twitter is a fad, a trend or will be a successful brand.

Celebrities like Oprah and George Stroumboulopoulos use Twitter to inform TV audience about the guests in their forthcoming shows and generate interest and buzz about it. So there is a possible need / niche market for it. Twitter would have to expand this need (niche) into an appeal for bigger groups. For example, I use Twitter to stay in touch with friends and colleagues who I am also connected with on LinkedIn and Facebook. Thus LinkedIn and Facebook drive first-mover advantage here as I have been using these platforms for a while, few times a week, as a habit. I use Twitter mostly for fun than as a utility or a need.

Twitter’s growth coincided with the economic slowdown, with people working more hours to sustain their lifestyle and getting less time to try out innovative ideas. LinkedIn and Facebook were launched during economic growth and feel-good times, an environment conducive for new products. Thus Twitter faces an uphill task to maintain the initial momentum compared to other such applications. Future success for Twitter will depend on its ability to use the technology and perhaps business collaborations to correspond with current lifestyles, values and demographics in order to move from a nice-to-have to a feel-good, must-have brand.

Twitter is still growing like gangbusters. It seems the trend is really about instant communication with groups of people, similar to what Seth Godin would describe as interest groups or tribes, depending on the context.

A fad or not, Twitter does have to be acknowledged and leveraged if possible. On that note, I find for most of my clients, it would be a waste of time to have dedicated resources for Twitter... for the time being.

Thank you for your comments Ernest.

I agree, it does not make sense for most businesses to join the Twitter bandwagon, considering the current ground realities.

I think Twitter and Facebook, for that matter, are the pioneers of social media. Their popularity might fade over time but their impact on how we communicate, both on a personal and corporate level has been changed forever.

Over the course of the next few years we are going to see more social sites like these that have morphed from it's original predecessor.

Businesses are trying to find ways to monetize social sites. If they succeed, the social sites of today may become the next Netscape.

For now, might as well jump on the bandwagon.

Twitter is growing but its a lot of people jumping on board to check it out and abandoning their account. Most have less than 10 posts and follow as many.

Its important to stake your claim on these new social media tools, even if you don't think you'll use them. Joining only takes a minute... maybe this is part of twitters growth?

But you're right that this isn't for everyone. Social media can require a significant time investment.

But if you are a forward facing B2C company with customers, its possible that you could be using it to your advantage. Dell computers and many others have come up with some great ways to improve communications with their customers.

Mark
http://www.reactorr.com/blog/